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educated guess

gen. au juger; au pifomètre; jugement approximatif
IMF. estimation raisonnée; estimation fondée
 English thesaurus
educated guess
gen. a guess that is made using judgment and a particular level of knowledge and is therefore more likely to be correct (We are being asked to rely on an educated guess for our future security. cambridge.orgFortunately, despite the lack of official national statistics, we can make an educated guess at the extent of the problem.)

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