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Subject: DISRUPTION SCENARIO math. Просьба подсказать перевод выражения "DISRUPTION SCENARIO".Ниже отрывок из статьи Risk-Bearing and the Choice of Contract Forms for Oil Exploration and Development, в котором описывается применение метода Монте-Карло. Заранее благодарю Determination of Gross and Net Revenues
Gross revenues are merely annual production times the world price of oil. Three oil-price scenarios are considered—a low case, a middle case, and a high case. The low case assumes that the real price of oil will decline at 1 percent per year until 1990, rise at 1 percent per year from 1991-1995, and then rise at 2 percent thereafter. The high case assumes 2 percent real annual increase until 1990, 3 percent from 1991-1995, and 4 percent thereafter. The middle case represents something akin to a disruption scenario, with constant real prices for the next two years, followed by a 15 percent jump in 1984, and constant prices from then until 1990. After 1990, this scenario has the same price growth as the high case. Because the model's calculations are in nominal terms, a 10 percent inflation factor is added to these real changes.
Net revenue is defined as gross revenue less total operating costs. Here, we have used rather low operating costs ($.66/bbl, rising at 10 percent annually to reflect inflation) because we have counted most costs as part of the development investment.
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